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Overconfidence, Investor Sentiment, and Evolution

Introduction

Population Dynamic in Asset Markets

Population Dynamic in a Large Economy

Overconfidence in a Pairwise Contest

Theorem 1

Investor Sentiment in a Playing-the-Field Contest

Dynamic Playing-The-Field Contest without Fundamental Risk

Theorem 2

Dynamic Playing-The-Field Contest with Fundamental Risk

Discussion of Analysis including Empirical Implication

Conclusion

Appendix

References

Books Related

Albert Wang:

Overconfidence, Investor Sentiment, and Evolution

Keywords :investor sentiment; Finanza Comportamentale

We examine the survival of nonrational investors in an evolutionary game model with a population dynamic for a large economy. The dynamic indicates that the growth rate of wealth accumulation drives the evolutionary process. We focus our analysis on the survival of overconfidence and investor sentiment.We find that underconfidence or pessimism cannot survive, but moderate overconfidence or optimism can survive and even dominate, particularly when the fundamental risk is large. These findings provide new empirical implications for the survivability of active fund management. Our results lend support to the relevance of the psychology of investors in studying financial markets.

Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G10, G14.

Prof. F. Albert Wang

Performance Trading

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