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Commodity Prices and Debt Sustainability

Abstract

Introduction

Objectives, Instruments and Scope

Financial Structure

Commodity Swaps

Commodity Swaptions

Oil Imports

The Commodity Price Trend

Offsetting

Simulations

Welfare Analysis

Simulation Results

Simulated Impact on Creditor Institutions

Discussion

Basis Risk

Quantity Variation

Conclusions

Appendix: Social Welfare and Detailed Results

References

Book Related

Commodity Prices and Debt Sustainability

Financial Structure

For specificity, consider a fresh loan of $A which matures in period T. Scheduled repayments are S1, S2, … ST. Consider the specific example of an IDA (International Development Association) loan, where, typically T = 40 and

We consider schemes which substitute a revised payment schedule R1, R2, … RT which have the same value to the creditor but which are easier for the debtor to pay. The constant value constraint implies

where F = 1 is the discount factor and H = 40 is a sufficiently long horizon10. The schemes we consider therefore operate by advancing and postponing debt service payments.

10 We need to allow for the possibility that postponed payments late in the life of a loan might force extension of the loan maturity.

By Prof. Christopher L. Gilbert, Prof. Alexandra Tabova

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