Keywords : Chartist Analysis , Chaotic Models - Chaos Theory

This thesis consists of two parts in which neither part deals explicitly with prediction. However, the difficulties of prediction are both the origin of and the common link in this thesis, even though each part tackles the problem from a different point of view. That prediction is a problem for financial markets is revealed by the very existence of insurance arrangements for those markets - if the future was not associated with uncertainty, there would be no risks and insurance markets would not exist. Prof. Mikael Bask

Umeå Economic Studies

Summary:

• Introduction

• Detecting chaotic dynamics in observed time series

• Reconstruction of the dynamics

• Embeddings

• Choosing the proper reconstruction parameters

• Ergodic quantities

• Lyapunov exponents

• Testing for chaotic dynamics in observed time series

• Statistical framework

• Short summaries of Papers [i]

• Short summaries of Papers [ii]

• Short summaries of Papers [iii]

• Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market

• Technical analysis

• Moving averages

• Momentum lines

• Endogenous speculative bubbles

• Summary of Paper [iv]

• Concluding remarks

• References A-H

• References J-Z

• Book: Exchange Rates